This week s teaser predictions see us betting the Cowboys down to a shorter 2.5-point favorite, while turning the Texans, Bears and Cardinals into big underdogs. Those four picks come in at +112 odds at DraftKings.
NFL Week 18 Teaser Picks
I ve created this teaser by choosing alternate spreads at DraftKings, but you should be able to do so at most . Though some books may not allow for as much movement in the lines as DK.
Texans vs Colts
Pick: Texans +8.5
This is very much an early playoff game here with win or go home implications on the line. Both teams are 9-7, but Indy is ahead on tie-breakers and in the playoffs, while Houston sits on the outside looking in. A win for either gives them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, as a whole host of other outcomes would need to occur for them to miss out.
These teams last played way back in Week 2 with Indianapolis winning 31-20. Anthony Richardson was still the Colts QB, though he got injured that game, giving way to Gardner Minshew and Jonathan Taylor was still injured as well. CJ Stroud was already showing signs of being the likely rookie of the year with 384 passing yards and two touchdowns, but Houston lost a fumble, missed a field goal, allowed Stroud to get sacked six times and allowed Richardson and Zach Moss to run for a combined three touchdowns.
But overall. Houston held the advantage in total yards, passing yards, first downs, fourth down conversions, total plays and time of possession.
Minshew is still the QB and Taylor has returned since that time and the Colts have been good yet inconsistent. They ve alternated wins and losses in each of their past five games, winning 23-20 over the Raiders last week. Outside of a 30-13 win over the Steelers, Indy has given up 20+ plus points in each of their other five recent games.
That likely continues versus Houston who just won 26-3 versus the Titans in Stroud s return from concussion last week. The Texans are 6-3 SU in their past nine and one of those losses came with Stroud sitting out versus the surging Browns. The Colts apply the lowest blitz rate which could allow Stroud to methodically pick apart this Colts defense. Last week despite the lopsided score, Aidan O Connell threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns.
Cowboys vs Commanders
Pick: Cowboys -2.5
This should be an easy win for the Cowboys. Their last game with Washington in November was a coast job, where Dallas won 45-10. But that game did come at home.
Going on the road has not been a great spot to bet on the Cowboys this season where they are just 3-5 SU and ATS. Dallas has lost their last two road games 31-10 in Buffalo and 22-20 in Miami, before getting a narrow home win last week, 20-19 over Detroit.
Those last three teams are all good teams though. Washington is not. The Commanders have given up 30, 28, 45, 45, 31, 29 and 27 points in recent weeks.
This Commanders defense ranks 32nd in PPG allowed, 32nd in YPG allowed, 31st in passing YPG allowed and 25th in rushing YPG allowed. They re also 32nd in turnover-differential at -12, they’re tied in 29th in receptions allowed to running backs, 27th in receiving yards allowed to running backs, have allowed the fourth-most receiving touchdowns to running backs, are 32nd in receiving yards and 31st in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers and have allowed multiple quarterback passing touchdowns in 11 of their past 13 games.
Dallas could cover and offer plenty of good angles, but given their dip in form on the road, let s use them for our Week 18 teaser picks.
WOW: The defense has 16 interceptions over their last six games.
MLFootball (@_MLFootball)
Bears vs Packers
Pick: Bears +10.5
Only one team has something to play for here and it s the Packers hoping to get into the playoffs while the Bears have been eliminated. There s also only one team that has had any success in this NFC North rivalry with Green Bay winning nine in a row while being 26-4 SU in their past 30 games as well.
But more recently, Chicago is only one win behind Green Bay, 7-7 versus 8-7 this season. Both teams are riding two-game winning streaks and the Bears have won four of five.
Chicago s defense may only rank 20th in PPG allowed (22.6), but in their last seven games they ve only given up over 20 points once, on the road in Detroit. In that time their defense has only allowed an average of 17.14 PPG.
The Packers defense has been trending the opposite direction in recent weeks. They held Jaren Hall and then later Nick Mullens in check in last week s 33-10 over the Vikings. But had given up 30, 34 and 24 points in the games prior. That included allowing Bryce Young to have his best game in an otherwise poor rookie season. Green Bay s eight wins have come by 18 (versus Chicago), 1, 17, 3, 7, 8, 3 and then 23 points last week.
So outside of a lopsided Week 1 win over Chicago, plus two big wins over teams with backup quarterbacks (MIN and LAR), their wins have been close.
Chicago would like nothing more than to keep Green Bay out of the playoffs and even if they lose in this spot, which they often do, they won t get blown out.
Seahawks vs Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals +10.5
Arizona has lost four straight versus Seattle and are a woeful 1-13 versus the NFC West. That last Seattle loss came back in October, in Seattle where they lost 20-10. That game was close though, being 14-10 at half and just 17-10 until a late field goal. It also came without Kyler Murray and James Connor playing for the Cardinals.
They re back for this one and have been playing well in recent games for Arizona. Murray threw for three touchdowns last week and Connor rushed for 128 yards and a score himself.
The Seahawks haven t been able to stop anyone on the ground all season and rank 30th in rush defense. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 197 yards against them last week in a 30-23 loss at home to Pittsburgh.
Seatlte may win. They need the game more and have owned Arizona. But if we add some insurance in a teaser or alternate spread market with Arizona that should cover us. Seattle is 2-5 SU in their past seven and outside of a 24-3 win over the Giants way back on October 2, hasn t won by more than ten points in any other game.
Week 18 NFL Teaser picks: Texans +8.5 / Cowboys -2.5 / Bears +10.5 / Cardinals +10.5 (+112); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Season record: 15-19, -5.08 units
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